Preview, prediction for FC Cincinnati-Columbus Crew MLS Cup Eastern Conference final

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CINCINNATI (CINCINNATI ENQUIRER) -Whatever the outcome is for FC Cincinnati in the 2023 MLS Cup Eastern Conference final, the match will be remembered for the chaotic week leading up to it as much as the events of the match itself.

Cincinnati on Saturday will host arch-rival Columbus Crew in the Eastern Conference final at TQL Stadium (6 p.m.), according to our media partners at the Cincinnati Enquirer. It’s the first-ever playoff edition of the bitter “Hell is Real” rivalry series between the teams, and the winner not only advances to the MLS Cup championship match but will host it.

Betsy Ross discusses MLS Eastern Final ahead of match at TQL Stadium

In a rivalry where each victory already begets long-term bragging rights, Saturday’s winner will have something to hold over the losing side for years, if not generations of fans to come.

There’s more at stake than supremacy among warring Ohio factions, too. Hosting the MLS Cup on Dec. 9 is a potentially lucrative and high-visibility opportunity for both Cincinnati and Columbus, considering the game will be broadcast nationally on linear TV via FS1 and globally via Apple TV stream in over 100 countries.

The stakes and the challenge presented by Columbus is what FC Cincinnati will attempt to rise to meet after one of the most fraught weeks in club history.

In the wake of Saturday’s controversial conference semifinal win against Philadelphia Union, FC Cincinnati witnessed captain Luciano Acosta hoist the 2023 Landon Donovan Most Valuable Player trophy on Monday. It was a singular moment for Acosta and the FC Cincinnati organization at-large, and yet another reminder the club was still riding the wave of the best season in franchise history.

FC Cincinnati midfielder Luciano Acosta, poses for a photo after being named Major League... — FC Cincinnati midfielder Luciano Acosta, poses for a photo after being named Major League Soccer’s Most Valuable Player for the 2023 season, Monday, Nov. 27, 2023, at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati.(Sam Greene | Cincinnati Enquirer)

By midweek, the FC Cincinnati community was reeling from the revelation by MLS that sanctions against Matt Miazga, the league’s Defender of the Year, had ended his 2023 season. The three-match suspension is scheduled to carry over into 2024, too.

FC Cincinnati survived the Philadelphia match with Miazga serving a separate suspension, but it was hoped the club’s defense of him in the face of allegations would hold up and see him return to the field. That the defense was unsuccessful made waves across the North American soccer scene, and cast a cloud over the reigning Supporters’ Shield winners.

The Miazga controversy kicked up again Thursday as FCC head coach Pat Noonan and the Major League Soccer Players Association (MLSPA) spoke out on the issue. Noonan criticized the severity of the punishment. The MLSPA criticized the process that produced the punishment, condemning the Professional Soccer Referees Association (PSRA), which first brought allegations against Miazga into the public sphere.

FC Cincinnati defender Yerson Mosquera (15) scores a goal in the second half of the MLS... — FC Cincinnati defender Yerson Mosquera (15) scores a goal in the second half of the MLS Eastern Conference semifinal match at TQL Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023.(Albert Cesare | Cincinnati Enquirer)

It’s unclear what effect all the drama had on the team itself. In a deviation from normal media activities, no FC Cincinnati players participated in the club’s scheduled pre-match interviews Thursday.

“I think we were already dealing with it internally in knowing that Matt wasn’t available for the last game,” Noonan said Thursday. “They’ve seen what it looks like for one week already, and now it’s gonna be for the remainder. We continue to move forward in a strong way . . . . I’m confident in our guys. We’re at a stage now where the guys understand what’s at stake. They know each other. We know each other. We know what we’re about, and even when you take pieces away from that, guys have stepped in all year to position us to be in this exact moment where you win games without key pieces. The expectation is that we go do it again on Saturday.”

FC Cincinnati will be without Matt Miazga (21), the MLS' top defender, when it meets Columbus... — FC Cincinnati will be without Matt Miazga (21), the MLS' top defender, when it meets Columbus Crew in the Eastern Conference championship match on Saturday night.(Albert Cesare | Cincinnati Enquirer)

The hope among fans, many of whom are distraught, is FC Cincinnati can rally again in the fashion Noonan mentioned and author its finest chapter yet in “Hell is Real” lore.

A possible boost for FC Cincinnati

FCC’s starting lineup against Philadelphia was a relatively patchwork group when compared to Noonan’s preferred starters. Absent were Miazga, Nick Hagglund (surgery), Obinna Nwobodo (foot), and Santiago Arias (leg), who dressed for the Union match but didn’t see the field.

Facing a Philadelphia side with its own share of suspensions and injury concerns, Cincinnati did enough to survive.

Comparatively speaking, the Crew are in better shape in terms of suspensions (none) and injury concerns. But FCC could receive a lineup boost this weekend.

On Thursday, Nwobodo and Arias were both training with the rest of their teammates. And seeing as Thursdays are considered the key day of pre-match preparation for FC Cincinnati, it was an encouraging sign.

Arias was already deemed well enough to dress against Philadelphia. Any progress achieved in his recovery in the week since figures to make him that much closer to starting.

Improvement for Nwobodo would mean reaching Noonan’s dress list. It remains to be seen if that’s a possibility, but Nwobodo appeared more active and agile during Thursday’s training session than at any point during the week leading up to playing Philadelphia.

After Thursday’s training session, Noonan said the group was much better by the end of the week. “Everybody’s available, which is promising,” Noonan said.

How FC Cincinnati, Columbus Crew got here

For FC Cincinnati, defense and goalkeeping have been the story of the postseason, even though the club has been marred by injuries and suspension.

Through three games, and with head coach Pat Noonan fielding three different combinations of players on his back line, Cincinnati’s allowed just one goal − a 2023 MLS-best this postseason.

In net, Roman Celentano has 11 saves, two shutouts, and a game-winning penalty-kick save. The lone goal that beat him was nearly saved, too.

FC Cincinnati goalkeeper Roman Celentano (18) embraces FC Cincinnati forward Brandon Vázquez... — FC Cincinnati goalkeeper Roman Celentano (18) embraces FC Cincinnati forward Brandon Vázquez (19) after the MLS Eastern Conference semifinal match at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. FC Cincinnati defeated Philadelphia Union 1-0.(Albert Cesare | Cincinnati Enquirer)

FC Cincinnati shut out Philadelphia on Saturday in an Eastern Conference semifinal match. Yerson Mosquera scored the late and controversial game-winner in the 94th minute, leaving Philadelphia with just seconds to try to find an equalizer before the final whistle.

FC Cincinnati swept the best-of-three first-round series against New York Red Bulls, winning 3-0 at TQL Stadium on Oct. 29 before securing the sweep in penalty kicks on Nov. 4 after playing to a 1-1 draw over 90-plus minutes.

Alvaro Barreal is FCC’s leading scorer this postseason with two goals. Both were scored in the playoff opener against the Red Bulls Oct. 29.

Columbus has a little more wear-and-tear this postseason, having played more games and experiencing a shorter layoff between the first round and conference semifinal (13 days).

The third-seeded Crew needed three matches to eliminate sixth-seeded Atlanta United in the first round. The scores of the matches were as follows: A 2-0 win Nov. 1, a 4-2 loss at Atlanta on Nov. 7, and a series-clinching 4-2 win on Nov. 12, the final day of first-round matches.

The Crew were, perhaps, more impressive in their semifinal on the road at second-seeded Orlando City SC where they won, 2-0, at Exploria Stadium. The clubs played to a scoreless draw over 90-plus minutes and needed extra-time to settle the match.

Christian Ramirez scored in the 93rd minute and Cucho Hernandez added an empty-net insurance tally in the 118th minute, marking his fourth goal of this postseason.